Poll Finds Trump Faces Steep Challenge In Shifting Voters Before Midterms

A new POLITICO survey suggests ending the Iran war or lowering gasoline prices may do little to improve Republican prospects as voters remain skeptical of last-minute economic and foreign policy breakthroughs.

WASHINGTON (AP) | President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans face a narrowing path to changing voters' minds ahead of November's midterm elections, with a new POLITICO poll finding that even major achievements on the economy and the war with Iran may not significantly improve the party's electoral prospects.

The survey, conducted by independent polling firm PF Global, suggests that voter attitudes toward Trump and the Republican Party have hardened as the campaign enters its final weeks. Most respondents said they would not become more likely to support Republican candidates even if the administration ended the Iran war, sharply reduced gasoline prices or delivered substantial job growth.

The findings raise questions about whether the White House can translate potential policy victories into electoral gains before November, particularly among undecided voters who could determine control of Congress.

According to the survey, just 29% of Americans said a $1-per-gallon decline in gasoline prices would make them more likely to vote Republican. Another 28% said ending the war with Iran would increase their likelihood of supporting GOP candidates.

The results were especially troubling for Republicans among Democratic and undecided voters, who showed little movement across several hypothetical scenarios involving economic improvements and foreign policy accomplishments.

Economic concerns complicate Republican strategy

The poll also found widespread skepticism that Trump could deliver the changes before Election Day.

Only about 27% of Americans believed the president could reduce gasoline prices by $1 per gallon, end the Iran war or substantially lower grocery prices before voters head to the polls.

Even among Americans who supported Trump in 2024, confidence was limited. Just 43% believed he could achieve a $1-per-gallon reduction in gasoline prices.

The findings underscore a political challenge for Republicans: Voters may welcome lower prices or an end to military hostilities without necessarily rewarding the party responsible for those developments.

The economic consequences of the Iran conflict have added to those difficulties. Higher fuel and fertilizer costs have affected agricultural production and transportation, creating pressures that can take months to work through supply chains.

Energy analysts have also warned that an end to hostilities would not necessarily produce immediate relief at gasoline stations, limiting the potential political benefit of a late campaign breakthrough.

Democrats see opportunity as GOP defends congressional majorities

The survey found that pluralities of Americans expect Democrats to win control of both the House and Senate, although expectations about election outcomes are not the same as forecasts of actual results.

Republicans are confronting increasingly competitive contests in districts and states previously considered relatively secure. Outside political organizations have directed additional resources toward defending Republican-held territory as party strategists assess the possibility of congressional losses.

Mike Noble, founder of Arizona-based Noble Predictive Insights, said Republican enthusiasm has become a concern while Democratic voters appear more energized.

“I think a lot of the die is already cast,” Noble said.

The challenge extends beyond persuading voters who oppose Trump. Republicans must also motivate their own supporters to participate in an election in which the president is not on the ballot.

For GOP strategists, maintaining control of the Senate could become increasingly important if the party loses ground in House contests.

White House and Republicans dispute poll's implications

Republican officials rejected suggestions that the party's electoral position is beyond recovery.

A Republican National Convention spokesperson accused POLITICO of selectively presenting polling results to advance an unfavorable narrative about the GOP. The survey, however, asked respondents across political affiliations the same questions.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended Trump's political influence, arguing that the president remains capable of mobilizing the coalition that helped return him to office in 2024.

Ingle described Trump as the Republican Party's strongest messenger and said the president remains committed to preserving GOP majorities in Congress.

Republican officials continue to point to Trump's support among his core voters and the possibility that turnout operations, candidate quality and local issues could influence competitive races.

Those factors could still affect election outcomes even if national voter attitudes remain relatively stable.

Iran war adds uncertainty to final campaign stretch

The conflict with Iran remains another obstacle for Republicans seeking a late political reset.

Trump has repeatedly suggested that the war could be approaching its conclusion, but the continued U.S. military presence in the Middle East has complicated expectations of a near-term resolution.

Republican strategist Doug Heye questioned whether ending the conflict would translate quickly enough into lower household costs to change the electoral environment.

The POLITICO survey found that roughly one-third of Americans said ending the Iran war would have no meaningful effect on their vote, while another 20% said it would make them less likely to support Republican candidates.

Other hypothetical developments, including a major trade agreement with China or inflation reaching a five-year low, produced similarly limited shifts among Democratic and undecided voters.

The findings do not establish that Republican losses are inevitable. Polls capture attitudes at a particular moment, and congressional outcomes will depend on individual races, turnout and developments before Election Day.

But the survey suggests that the political value of a last-minute achievement may be limited when voters have already formed strong opinions about the president, the economy and the direction of the country.

For Republicans, the final weeks of the campaign may be less about finding a single breakthrough than persuading skeptical voters while ensuring their existing supporters turn out.

Source: POLITICO Poll report

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-- By Andréa Mochida and Farhana Sumi

Leticia Jacobs, James A. Wright and Regina E. Zaracho Baez contributed to this report.

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