With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, a new FactCheck.org analysis shows sluggish job growth, higher inflation and rising gasoline prices alongside historic declines in illegal border crossings, falling violent crime and a surging stock market.
So far, under President Donald Trump’s second term:
- Job growth became sluggish, with only 776,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, still historically low.
- Inflation worsened. Consumer prices are up 5.4%. Gasoline is up 38%.
- Wages just barely rose faster than inflation, as measured since Trump was sworn in. But they’ve decreased this year.
- The economy grew 2.2% in the second quarter, continuing a steady rate of growth.
- Consumer sentiment remains low.
- Home prices increased 6.2%.
- The trade deficit for the most recent 12 months is down 10.4% compared with 2024, but it has risen substantially in the last two months on record.
- The number of apprehensions at the U.S. border with Mexico decreased about 91%. The number of refugee admissions dropped by nearly the same percentage.
- The percentage of the population lacking health insurance was statistically unchanged in 2025, according to two government reports.
- The number of people receiving federal food assistance decreased by 6 million.
- Median household income rose in 2025, while the official poverty rate declined. An alternative measure of poverty that factors in government assistance showed no meaningful change.
- Corporate profits continued to rise; 2025 was the 10th consecutive year that profits increased.
- The S&P 500 went up 28.6%.
- The violent crime and murder rates in 2025 continued to decline, dropping by the largest percentages since the FBI began collecting nationwide data in 1936.
- The publicly held debt is up about 12.8%.
