In one month, from May to June, overall inflation in the U.S. dropped at the “fastest rate in more than six years,” as President Donald Trump said in late July remarks. But he has repeatedly cited the statistic while wrongly suggesting that the inflation rate is now “way down” from when he took office. It’s not.
The big one-month drop came after several months of increases in the inflation rate that were largely due to high oil and gasoline prices caused by the war with Iran. When the U.S. and Iran were honoring a ceasefire agreement in June, those energy prices declined, helping to lower the rate of inflation.
And the fact that oil and gasoline prices have risen again due to rekindled U.S. fighting with Iran could result in the rate of inflation increasing once again. As of Aug. 5, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projected a minimal monthly increase in the inflation rate for July – not another monthly rate decrease.
In addition, the annualized rate of inflation in June still was higher than it was when Trump became president in January 2025.
