With a $250 million production budget, Disney’s latest live-action remake targets a $60M–$65M domestic debut while horror entry Evil Dead Burn and A24’s The Invite compete for audiences in a crowded weekend marketplace.
Disney is returning audiences to the Pacific with its live-action adaptation of Moana, but the film's first box office numbers suggest the studio faces a pivotal opening weekend as it seeks to justify one of its largest theatrical investments of the year.
The musical adventure earned $4.5 million in Thursday preview screenings, positioning the remake for an estimated $60 million to $65 million domestic debut. Some industry forecasts, however, remain more conservative, projecting an opening closer to $40 million, creating uncertainty around the film's initial commercial trajectory.
Featuring Catherine Laga'aia in the title role alongside Dwayne Johnson, who reprises his fan-favorite performance as Maui, the film represents Disney's latest effort to transform its animated classics into live-action blockbusters.
A Costly Voyage With High Expectations
The financial stakes are considerable.
With a reported $250 million production budget, combined with an extensive worldwide marketing campaign, Moana must generate substantial global ticket sales to reach profitability.
International markets may provide the strongest boost. Early estimates suggest overseas audiences could contribute an additional $70 million to $75 million during opening weekend, helping offset any softness in North American performance.
Disney's recent live-action remakes have delivered mixed results.
Films including The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, and Lilo & Stitch opened above the $100 million mark domestically before becoming worldwide hits. Conversely, Dumbo and 2025's Snow White produced significantly smaller openings, demonstrating that brand recognition alone no longer guarantees blockbuster returns.
Preview Numbers Mirror Recent Mid-Level Openings
Industry observers note that Moana's preview performance aligns closely with several recent theatrical releases.
The film's $4.5 million preview total lands near:
Lightyear — $5.2 million previews ($50.6 million opening)
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire — $4.7 million previews ($45 million opening)
Franchise Fatigue or Perfect Timing?
One question surrounding Disney's strategy is whether audiences are experiencing franchise fatigue.
The live-action remake arrives only two years after Moana 2 became a global phenomenon, surpassing $1 billion worldwide after delivering a record-breaking $225 million Thanksgiving debut.
The original 2016 animated Moana also proved enormously successful, earning approximately $680 million globally after opening to $56 million domestically.
While strong brand awareness could drive family attendance, some analysts believe the short gap between releases may reduce urgency among moviegoers.
Horror and Family Films Crowd the Marketplace
Disney won't have the box office to itself this weekend.
Warner Bros.' Evil Dead Burn, the sixth installment in the long-running horror franchise, generated $2.3 million in previews and is projected to debut between $15 million and $20 million. With a reported production budget near $20 million, the film requires far less revenue to reach profitability.
Meanwhile, A24's The Invite, directed by Olivia Wilde, expands nationwide and is expected to collect between $4 million and $5 million during its first wide release.
Holdovers remain significant competition as well.
Universal's Minions & Monsters, last weekend's No. 1 film, is projected to earn $17 million to $22 million in its sophomore frame, while Toy Story 5 continues its strong theatrical run with an estimated $18 million to $20 million during its fourth weekend.
Disney's Next Box Office Test
For Disney, Moana represents more than another remake.
The film serves as another indicator of whether audiences remain enthusiastic about revisiting animated classics through live-action adaptations—or whether studios must increasingly rely on original storytelling to generate theatrical momentum.
With premium-format screenings, family audiences, and international markets expected to play major roles, the coming days will determine whether Moana becomes Disney's next billion-dollar voyage or another reminder that even beloved franchises face evolving audience expectations.
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-- By Michael Thomas
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