President Donald Trump says Coloradans are leaving “in droves” as he vetoes a major water project, but census data, state demographers, and multiple moving-company reports complicate that claim — and fuel speculation of political retribution.
President Donald Trump’s decision to veto a bipartisan water infrastructure bill for Colorado has ignited a political and factual dispute over one of the state’s most sensitive metrics: population growth.
In vetoing legislation that would have funded the Arkansas Valley Conduit (AVC) — a long-planned project designed to deliver clean drinking water to southeastern Colorado — Trump argued that the bill would “force Federal taxpayers to bear even more of the massive costs of a local water project.” But in public comments and social media posts, the president added a second justification: his assertion that people are leaving Colorado “in droves.”
Available data tell a more nuanced story.
🚰 A Rare Veto, A Broader Message
The veto was only the second issued by Trump during the first year of his current term. The bill had passed both the House and Senate by voice vote, signaling broad bipartisan support. The House attempted to override the veto on Jan. 8, but the effort failed on Jan. 9, despite support from 35 Republicans.
The Arkansas Valley Conduit would pipe treated reservoir water roughly 130 miles to serve approximately 50,000 residents in areas where groundwater contains naturally occurring radionuclides such as radium and uranium. The project is part of the larger Fryingpan-Arkansas Project, approved in 1962, which reshaped water access across Colorado.
According to the Bureau of Reclamation, the AVC has already cost more than $500 million, with total projected costs estimated at $1.4 billion at 2023 prices—nearly double earlier estimates. Federal officials have noted, however, that the pipeline’s cost remains comparable to similar large-scale water projects currently under construction.
📉 Trump’s Population Claim
In an interview with 'TELL IT LIKE IT IS' News, Trump criticized Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, saying, “They’re wasting a lot of money and people are leaving the state. They’re leaving the state in droves. Bad governor.”
United Van Lines reported 6,633 interstate moves involving Colorado in 2025, with 55% classified as outbound. But even within that data, the reasons cited for leaving were primarily personal: about 31% cited family obligations, and roughly 23% cited job-related reasons.
Other major moving companies — including U-Haul, Atlas Van Lines, Allied Van Lines, and North American Moving Services — reported either modest inflows, slight outflows, or largely neutral trends for the state during the same period, according to local media.
📊 What the Demographics Show
Longer-term population data undercut the idea of a mass exodus.
Figures compiled by USAFacts and the Colorado State Demography Office show that Colorado’s population has continued to trend upward since Polis took office in 2019. The state’s population stood at approximately 5.7 million in 2019 and is projected to approach 6 million by 2025.
In a July interview with Denver’s 9NEWS, State Demographer Kate Watkins said Colorado “has, and is projected to continue to, grow faster than the rest of the United States.”
While growth has slowed from pre-pandemic highs — a national trend affecting many states — available data do not support claims of people leaving Colorado “in record numbers.”
🔁 Politics Beneath the Policy?
The veto has also fueled speculation that Trump’s move was driven by political grievances rather than demographics or fiscal concerns.
Some Colorado political observers have pointed to tensions involving Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Trump ally whose district would benefit from the water project. Boebert recently diverged from the president by supporting legislation demanding the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein — a move Trump publicly criticized.
Others note Trump’s escalating rhetoric toward Polis following the conviction of Tina Peters, the former Mesa County clerk, sentenced to nine years in state prison for compromising election equipment in an effort to undermine the 2020 election results. Trump has repeatedly attacked Polis and state prosecutors over the case, calling for Peters’ release and pledging a pardon — despite the fact that presidential pardon powers do not extend to state convictions.
“No President has jurisdiction over state law nor the power to pardon a person for state convictions,” Polis said in December.
⚖️ Data vs. Narrative
The population argument appears to rest largely on the selective use of moving-company data rather than comprehensive demographic trends. While interstate migration patterns fluctuate year to year, Colorado’s overall population trajectory remains positive — a reality that complicates the president’s public rationale.
As the dust settles, the veto leaves southeastern Colorado communities without a long-anticipated water solution, while reopening a broader debate over how population data is framed — and politicized — in national policy fights.
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