America on Edge: New Poll Finds Majority Expect Surge in Political Violence — and 1 in 4 Say It’s Sometimes Justified

A POLITICO–Public First survey reveals deep anxiety about political violence as experts warn the U.S. has entered an era of “violent populism,” with growing acceptance of extremism across generations.

WASHINGTON | A chilling new POLITICO–Public First poll finds that a majority of Americans now believe political violence will increase, and more than half fear a political assassination within the next five years. The data paint a sobering picture of a nation gripped by distrust, division, and rising extremism — with 24 percent of Americans saying political violence is sometimes justified.

The survey underscores the degree to which recent attacks — from the 2024 attempts on Donald Trump’s life to the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year — have shaken public confidence in America’s ability to resolve political disputes peacefully.

According to the poll, 55 percent of Americans expect political violence to worsen, while 64 percent still insist it is never justified. Yet nearly a quarter of the country, particularly younger adults, now view violence as a legitimate response “in some cases.”

Generational and Ideological Fault Lines

The most striking divide in the poll wasn’t partisan — it was generational.

More than one in three Americans under 45 said political violence can be justified under certain circumstances, compared to just 15 percent of older Americans.

This erosion of the social contract cuts across party lines. Among Trump voters, 51 percent believe a political assassination is likely, while 53 percent of Kamala Harris voters share the same fear. The consensus reflects a nation united only by its shared anxiety over democracy’s fragility.

An Era of ‘Violent Populism’

Robert Pape, a leading political violence expert at the University of Chicago, warned that America is no longer teetering on the brink — it’s already crossed the threshold.

“We’re not on the brink of it — we’re firmly in the grip of it,” Pape said. “The U.S. has entered an era of violent populism.”

Pape’s research suggests that support for political violence has migrated from the fringe to the mainstream, fueled by online radicalization, partisan rhetoric, and a loss of faith in institutions.

A Rising Tide of Attacks and Threats

In just the past few years, both Republican and Democratic leaders have been targeted in a string of violent incidents:

• The assassination of activist Charlie Kirk (2025)
• Attempts on Donald Trump’s life (2024)
• The attack on Paul Pelosi (2022) that left him with a fractured skull
• The kidnapping plot against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (2020)
• The federal murder indictment following the shooting deaths of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband
• The firebombing of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence (2025)

In Washington, U.S. Capitol Police investigated nearly 10,000 threats against members of Congress last year alone — a record that underscores how normalized intimidation and harassment have become in American politics.

A Crisis of Democracy and Trust

Shannon Hiller, executive director of Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative, cautioned that this culture of hostility is discouraging qualified Americans from entering public service.

“When people aren’t willing to run because of the climate of hostility, that impacts who’s ultimately representing us,” Hiller said.

The poll also revealed a widespread climate of fear and self-censorship. Forty-one percent of respondents said they hesitate to share their political views in public, and those individuals were far more likely to expect violence to increase.

Polarization and the Loss of Common Ground

While Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to predict worsening violence, the difference may reflect deeper pessimism among Democrats following Trump’s return to office. Meanwhile, both sides overwhelmingly blame the other’s rhetoric for fueling extremism, according to companion research from Pew.

In the aftermath of Kirk’s killing, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) urged Americans to seek an “off-ramp” before the country spirals further.

“At some point, we have to find an off-ramp — or else it’s going to get much worse,” Cox warned.

Yet as the poll reveals, 41 percent of Americans say they don’t have a close friend who votes for a different party, a troubling sign of how social separation now mirrors political polarization.

The Takeaway

America is facing a dangerous convergence: rising fear, declining trust, and growing acceptance of political violence as a legitimate tool of expression. Experts warn that without a deliberate effort to rebuild civic engagement, restore trust in institutions, and lower the temperature of public discourse, the cycle may only deepen.

“Public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream,” Pape said. “It’s no longer a fringe idea — and that makes it far more dangerous.”

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-- By James W. Thomas

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