With a high-stakes summit in Brussels looming and a possible Donald Trump–Vladimir Putin truce on the horizon, European leaders are rushing to arm and fund Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of any deal that could force Ukraine to cede territory.
European capitals are racing to shore up Ukraine’s strategic position this week, as the prospect of a truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin raises alarms about a deal that could undercut Kyiv’s war effort and reshape Europe’s security architecture.
At the heart of the concern is the planned summit between Trump and Putin, which many European officials fear may lead to a cease-fire deal that freezes the conflict on Russia’s terms, potentially destabilising Ukraine and threatening the continent’s broader defence posture. In response, Ukraine’s European allies are convening this week in Brussels to agree on a three-pronged support package for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, focused on unlocking frozen Russian assets, bolstering military aid, and imposing new sanctions on Moscow.
WHY THE URGENCY?
In recent days, Trump reversed course again on his approach to the war — after suggesting Ukraine could recover all of its territory, he now appears open to a cease-fire that freezes the current front lines. That stance has rattled Kyiv’s European backers, who interpret the shift as a potential prelude to pressuring Ukraine into territorial concessions. News reports indicate Moscow views the upcoming Trump–Putin meeting as a strategic window.
European diplomatic sources say this week’s summit will therefore be crucial: they aim to give Zelenskyy maximum leverage both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield. In a joint statement issued Tuesday, Zelenskyy and leaders from the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Norway, Finland, and Denmark declared that “international borders must not be changed by force”.
- Mobilizing the roughly €140 billion in Russian central-bank reserves currently frozen in Europe to set up a zero-interest “reparations loan” to Ukraine.
- A 19th round of sanctions targeting Russian banks, energy flows, and cryptocurrencies used to evade Western measures.
- Significant additional military aid, including long-range strike weapons, as Zelenskyy presses for systems such as long-range Tomahawk missiles.
Officials say that the approval of these measures during Thursday’s summit should send a strong signal to Moscow that Europe intends to sustain Ukraine’s defence for years to come. “If we send the message that we are willing and able to support Ukraine for the next two or three years, that will enter into their calculations when they’re discussing peace,” one diplomat said.
THE TRUMP–PUTIN FACTOR
Central to the European concern is the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest, which is widely seen as a potential turning point. Suppose Trump were to endorse a cease-fire on Russia’s terms. In that case, Ukraine’s allies fear it could force Zelenskyy into a deal that involves territorial sacrifice — a scenario many European leaders consider unacceptable.
Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán is an ally of Trump who has remained on good terms with
Putin throughout the war, to the consternation of other EU leaders. | Michael R. Thomas /TILIS
Some EU states dread that a “frozen war” could invite further Russian aggression, particularly in the Baltic region, and trigger a wave of re-armament in Europe. Finnish former prime minister Alexander Stubb warned that if Ukraine is pressured into giving away territory, the message to Russia and other revisionist powers would be perverse. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s close ties with Putin and role as a spoiler in EU sanction policy loom large.
LEGAL AND POLITICAL HURDLES
Deploying frozen Russian assets as a loan to Ukraine is legally and politically complex. Belgium, where a large share of those funds are held, has raised concerns about liability and reputational risk to the euro-zone if Moscow wins legal challenges.
Meanwhile, some EU members remain uneasy about throwing good money after bad in a war of indeterminate duration.
For Zelenskyy, the crunch point is clear: he must arrive at the negotiating table from a position of strength. If Kyiv enters talks under pressure and without credible backing, the risk is that any cease-fire becomes a liability rather than an opportunity.
WHAT'S NEXT?
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| The EU’s Kaja Kallas rejected the idea of any peace deal that forced Ukraine to give up Russian-occupied land. | John James/TILIS |
- On Thursday, EU leaders are expected to formally task the European Commission with drafting the legal framework to unlock the frozen assets.
- Zelenskyy is scheduled to address the summit either in person or via video link; shortly after, a broader meeting of the so-called “coalition of the willing” in London will convene.
- The Trump–Putin summit in Budapest is still in the planning stage, and European governments are debating whether to seek observer status to ensure Ukraine is not sidelined.
In short: Europe is acting fast to protect a negotiated peace deal from becoming a strategic defeat for Ukraine — and for the continent.
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-- By Andre Leday
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