Europe Weighs the Unthinkable: NATO Eyes Offensive Options as Russian Hybrid Attacks Surge

Joint cyber strikes, rapid attribution teams, and surprise NATO drills move from taboo to table-stakes as Moscow escalates drone incursions, sabotage, and information warfare across the continent.

BRUSSELS | Europe is confronting a scenario that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago: retaliating directly against the Russian state.

With Moscow ramping up hybrid attacks—from drone incursions to railway sabotage—senior European officials and diplomats tell 'TELL IT LIKE IT IS' Defense News that a once-taboo conversation is now taking shape inside NATO and EU capitals. The debate centers on whether the alliance should consider offensive cyber operations, coordinated attribution teams, and even “no-notice” NATO military exercises along Russia’s borders.

Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže summed up the emerging shift.

“The Russians are constantly testing the limits. A more proactive response is needed,” she said. “And it’s not talking that sends a signal — it’s doing.”

RUSSIA’S HYBRID CAMPAIGN INTENSIFIES

In recent months, Russian drones have buzzed Polish and Romanian airspace, while mysterious unmanned systems have disrupted operations at airports and military bases across Europe. Add to that GPS jamming, incursions by Russian fighter aircraft and naval vessels, and an explosion on a critical Polish rail line ferrying military aid to Ukraine.

The scope is unprecedented. The Bratislava-based think tank GLOBSEC counted over 110 sabotage attempts in Europe between January and July alone—most traced back to Moscow-linked actors.

German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn warned that Europe must question “how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare” and whether the West must consider “becoming more active ourselves.”

That pressure is rising just as Russia showcases a darker edge. At the Valdai Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said foreign policy today offers a “more creative space” and hinted Moscow is watching Europe’s “militarization.” Meanwhile, Kremlin official Dmitry Medvedev declared the U.S. an “adversary” and issued chilling warnings that Europeans “should tremble like dumb animals.”

SHIFTING FROM DEFENSIVE TO OFFENSIVE THINKING

Europe does not want a direct conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia. But the growing consensus is that staying purely defensive may no longer deter Moscow.

Swedish Chief of Defense Gen. Michael Claesson said fear of escalation risks paralyzing policymakers.

“We cannot allow ourselves to be fearful … We need to be firm.”

So far, NATO has focused on reinforcing air defenses after Russian drones were shot down over Poland. But capitals are now exploring more assertive tools.

Italy’s 125-Page Retaliation Blueprint

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto unveiled one of Europe’s most ambitious counter-hybrid proposals:

• A European Center for Countering Hybrid Warfare
• A 1,500-person EU cyber strike force
• Dedicated AI-trained military specialists
• Continent-wide harmonization of defensive rules of engagement

After sabotage on the Poland–Ukraine rail corridor, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Russia of “state terrorism” and deployed 10,000 troops to secure critical infrastructure.

THE ETHICAL BIND: HOW FAR CAN RULE-OF-LAW STATES GO?

European governments face a strategic dilemma: Can democratic states deploy the same deniable tools Russia uses?

Kevin Limonier of the GEODE think tank said Western nations must grapple with whether they can “use the same strategies as the Russians” while operating under stricter legal norms.

Several European intelligence services already carry out offensive cyber operations, including the U.K., Denmark, and the Czech Republic. NATO allies have quietly used these capabilities against non-state actors before—such as the U.K.’s operation against ISIS networks in 2017.

Latvia’s Braže argues Western cyber capabilities should now be aimed at systems directly tied to Russia’s war machine:

• The Alabuga drone production zone in Tatarstan
• Russian logistics networks
• Energy infrastructure supporting the military
• Weapons supply rail corridors

“We could disrupt the system,” said Filip Bryjka of the Polish Academy of Sciences. “And do so without firing a shot.”

THE INFORMATION WARFRONT

Moscow’s vast disinformation machinery remains a core pillar of its hybrid campaign. One senior military official acknowledged that “Russian public opinion is inaccessible” without deeper cooperation with allies familiar with the Kremlin’s information ecosystem.

EU diplomats emphasize any new information efforts require plausible deniability—a hallmark of Russia’s own hybrid tools.

NATO’S ROLE: SHOW OF FORCE, NOT FIRST STRIKE

NATO, a defensive alliance by charter, is reluctant to embrace offensive strategies. But senior officials acknowledge that stronger “asymmetric responses” are on the table.

Oana Lungescu, former NATO spokesperson, said the alliance should move quickly to publicly attribute attacks, then conduct surprise exercises in the Baltics or near Kaliningrad to display unity and deterrence.

The European Centre of Excellence for Hybrid Threats in Helsinki is now drafting a new doctrine and operational training for member states. Analysts say this has become one of NATO’s most important—and least understood—institutions.

A senior NATO diplomat put it bluntly:

“More must be done. Russia needs to see we can shift assets at will and respond collectively.”

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-- By James W. Thomas and Andréa Mochida

Jasmine Thomas, Andre Leday, Letitia Jacobs, Frank Atkinson, and John James contributed reporting.

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