China Eyes U.S. Undersea Sensor Network as Prime Target in Future Conflict, Analysts Warn

PLAN officers urge Beijing to develop offensive capabilities to sabotage America’s Integrated Undersea Surveillance System, citing vulnerabilities that could cripple U.S. anti-submarine warfare in the Pacific.

BEIJING | China’s navy is increasingly viewing America’s vast undersea sensor network as a critical target in any future conflict, with senior People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) officers advocating for an aggressive campaign to disrupt or destroy the system, according to a recent analysis from the U.S. Naval War College.

Submarines remain central to China’s naval deterrence strategy, but U.S. underwater surveillance — particularly the Integrated Undersea Surveillance System (IUSS) and its towed-array counterpart SURTASS — poses a significant threat to their stealth operations. Chinese military publications warn that this network of undersea microphones, mobile sensor ships, drones, satellites, and aircraft has created what they describe as an “integrated, three-dimensional surveillance system” capable of tracking PLAN submarines from port to patrol areas.

“If enough nodes are degraded, the system as a whole may lose its functionality,” said Ryan Martinson, a professor at the China Maritime Studies Institute, citing a candid November 2023 article in Military Art, an internal PLA journal.

PLAN Concerns Over Submarine Vulnerability

The PLAN currently fields a fleet of around 65 submarines — including six nuclear ballistic missile boats, six nuclear attack subs, and over 50 diesel-electric vessels — with plans to grow to 80 by 2035. But despite this expansion, Chinese strategists admit their undersea forces face overwhelming detection risks from U.S. and allied anti-submarine warfare (ASW) assets.

According to Military Art, the probability of PLAN submarines being detected when leaving port is “extremely high,” with further interception risks during operations in the Near Seas. Such admissions, analysts note, amount to a stinging indictment of China’s operational submarine survivability.

Potential Chinese Countermeasures

Chinese military thinkers are calling for the development of undersea drones, cable-cutting devices, cyberattack tools, and advanced detection technologies using acoustic, magnetic, optical, and AI systems to locate and neutralize U.S. surveillance nodes.

Their strategy hinges on exploiting vulnerabilities in the U.S. ASW network — particularly the fragility of undersea cables and the susceptibility of command-and-control systems, described as the network’s “Achilles heel.”

Bryan Clark, a Hudson Institute defense analyst and former U.S. Navy submarine officer, said these concerns are well-founded but warned such operations could prove time-consuming and resource-intensive.

A Modern Version of Cold War Chokepoints

The U.S. Navy’s IUSS has Cold War-era roots, having monitored Soviet submarine movements through choke points like the GIUK Gap. Today, analysts suggest the Pacific equivalent could bar Chinese subs from vital sea lanes, threatening their ballistic missile submarine patrols.

Martinson cautions that while it remains unclear whether China’s civilian and military leadership will adopt these recommendations, the fact that such strategies are being openly debated in PLA circles means U.S. defense planners should take the threat seriously.

“That they are being discussed by serious experts means the PLAN may be considering them,” Martinson warned. “Thus, U.S. Navy leaders must also take them seriously.”

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-- By John James

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